If You Can’t Beat’em, Buy’em
Estimating the combined market value of U.S. AR-15 rifle manufacturers can be challenging due to the diversity of the companies involved. Many of them are privately held and do not publicly disclose detailed financial information. However, we can get a rough estimate based on publicly available data, market reports, and industry analysis.
Public vs. Private Companies: Some AR-15 manufacturers are publicly traded (e.g., Sturm, Ruger & Co., Smith & Wesson), while others are privately held (e.g., Daniel Defense, Aero Precision). The market value of public companies can be more easily estimated through their market capitalisation, while private companies would require estimates based on revenue, growth potential, and industry comparisons.
Firearms Industry as a Whole:
The U.S. firearms industry is significant, with total revenues in the tens of billions annually. The AR-15 is one of the most popular rifle platforms in the U.S., and many of the manufacturers listed are major players in the broader firearms market.
Market Value Estimates:
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWBI): The company's market capitalisation as of 2024 is estimated to be around $0.6 - $1 billion.
Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc. (NYSE: RGR): The company's market capitalisation 2024 is estimated to be around $1.2 - $1.6 billion.
Colt's Manufacturing Company: Acquired by CZG - Česká zbrojovka Group in 2021. CZG's total market cap is around $2 - $2.5 billion, with Colt representing a significant portion of their value.
Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO): This company includes brands like Bushmaster. Its market capitalisation is around $1 - $1.5 billion.
For privately held companies like Daniel Defense, Aero Precision, and others, we can estimate their value based on revenue multiples:
- Daniel Defense: Estimated annual revenue might be $200-$300 million, potentially valuing the company at $600 million to $1 billion, depending on growth projections and profitability.
- Aero Precision: Another large player with a similar potential valuation based on revenue.
- Palmetto State Armory could also be valued at hundreds of millions.
Combined Market Value Estimate:
Considering both public and private companies, the combined market value of U.S. AR-15 manufacturers can be estimated in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion. This range considers the major players, market conditions, and the portion of their business explicitly tied to AR-15 production within the broader firearms market.
So you mean that for $10 billion, someone could buy all the legal producers and shut the production line for these models. Hmm, where would we find ten billionaires?
Paws for Nuclear Power
As of 2024, one of the most modern nuclear power stations in operation is Olkiluoto 3 in Finland. This plant is an EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) and is the first to be completed. It officially began commercial operations in April 2023.
Olkiluoto 3 is notable for several reasons:
1. Advanced Design: The EPR design incorporates advanced safety features, including a double-walled containment structure and systems to withstand extreme events.
2. High Output: It has a capacity of approximately 1,600 megawatts (MW), making it one of the largest nuclear reactors in the world in terms of electrical output.
3. Delayed but Pioneering: Although its construction faced significant delays and budget overruns, its completion marks a significant milestone in deploying advanced nuclear reactors in Europe.
Flossi Rides High
The computing power of the Mercury spacecraft compared to a modern iPhone is starkly different, highlighting the vast technological advancements over the past decades.
Mercury Spacecraft (1959-1963):
- The Mercury spacecraft's computing capabilities were minimal. The onboard systems were primarily mechanical and analogue, with minimal digital computation. Most calculations were done on the ground, and communication with the spacecraft was handled through radio telemetry.
- The only real "computer" involved was the ground-based IBM 701 or 7090, which handled data processing and flight simulation.
- The onboard systems mainly relied on simple transistor-based electronics for control and navigation, with computation power measured in just a few thousand instructions per second (KIPS).
Modern iPhone (e.g., iPhone 14 Pro):
- A modern iPhone has a multi-core processor with billions of transistors and can perform up to trillions of operations per second (teraflops). For instance, the A16 Bionic chip can handle up to 15.8 trillion operations per second.
- The iPhone also includes advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), neural engines for AI and machine learning tasks, and substantial amounts of RAM and storage.
Comparison:
The Mercury spacecraft's computing power is dwarfed by that of a modern iPhone, which is millions of times more powerful in terms of computational capability.
- To put it in perspective, the iPhone in your pocket has more computing power than all of NASA's computers combined at the time of the Apollo moon landings, let alone the Mercury missions.
- The iPhone can perform complex computations, support high-resolution graphics, and manage extensive communication and data processing tasks that would have been unimaginable with the technology available during the Mercury program.
In essence, the Mercury spacecraft had the equivalent of almost no digital computing power compared to the highly advanced and capable iPhone of today.
Flossi at Arlington National Cemetery
Two U.S. Presidents are buried at Arlington National Cemetery:
John F. Kennedy - The 35th President of the United States, assassinated in 1963, is buried in Arlington. His gravesite is marked by an eternal flame and is one of the most visited spots in the cemetery.
William Howard Taft - The 27th President of the United States, who also served as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, is the other President buried at Arlington. Taft died in 1930, and his grave is less elaborate compared to Kennedy's but still a significant historical site within the cemetery.
Flossi’s Excellent Adventure
The last ex-president to drive across the country was Harry S. Truman. After leaving the White House in January 1953, Truman and his wife, Bess, embarked on a road trip across the United States. The journey began in Independence, Missouri, and spanned 19 days, covering over 2,500 miles.
Truman's road trip was quite a significant event, as it was unusual for a former president to travel in such an unassuming manner. The Trumans traveled without Secret Service protection, which was not mandatory at the time, and drove their own car, a Chrysler New Yorker. They stayed in motels and visited friends along the way, drawing attention and admiration from the public wherever they went.
This journey is well-documented in Matthew Algeo's book Harry Truman’s Excellent Adventure: The True Story of a Great American Road Trip, which provides a detailed account of the trip and its significance in American history.
The Happy Warrior
“Four years ago, lying opponents said the country was tired of its ideals - they waged a campaign based on an appeal to prejudice based on the dragging out of bogies and hobgoblins, the subtle encouragement of false fears. America has not lost her faith in ideals - idealism is her heart’s blood. Tricked once we have been.
- Millions of voters are waiting today for the opportunity next November to reveal their vengeance on those deceivers. They await the opportunity to support a man who will return America to the fold of decency and ideals from which she has strayed and who will bring the Government back to the people.”
- FDR’s nominating speech at the 1924 Democratic Convention in support of Alfred E. Smith, Governor of New York.
Roosevelt didn’t want to give the speech, having written one himself. Al Smith insisted. Roosevelt relented and delivered the speech to thunderous applause. It was the first time Roosevelt delivered a public speech after contracting polio in 1921.
Forces for Flossi
The ability for individuals to directly vote for U.S. Senators was established by the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, which was ratified on April 8, 1913.
Before the 17th Amendment:
- State Legislatures' Role: Prior to the 17th Amendment, U.S. Senators were elected by state legislatures, not by the general public. This process was outlined in Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution.
After the 17th Amendment:
- Direct Election: The 17th Amendment changed the process so that Senators would be directly elected by the people of each state. This shift was made to make the Senate more responsive to the public and to reduce corruption and political manipulation that had occurred under the legislative election system.
Since 1913, U.S. citizens in each state have had the right to vote directly for their Senators.
Flocking to Flossi
The Bull Moose Party, officially known as the Progressive Party, was a political party in the United States formed by former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 after a split within the Republican Party. Here's what happened to the Bull Moose Party:
Formation and 1912 Election
- Origins: The Bull Moose Party was born from a rift between Theodore Roosevelt and the sitting President, William Howard Taft. Roosevelt, who had served as president from 1901 to 1909, was dissatisfied with Taft's conservative policies and decided to challenge him for the Republican nomination in 1912. When Taft won the nomination, Roosevelt and his supporters broke away to form the Progressive Party.
- The Bull Moose Party, affectionately nicknamed after Roosevelt's assertion that he felt 'as strong as a bull moose,' was a beacon of progressive reforms. It championed causes such as women's suffrage, social welfare programs, workers' rights, and the regulation of big businesses, demonstrating a strong commitment to change and reform.
- In the 1912 presidential election, Roosevelt ran as the Bull Moose candidate. His exceptional performance, securing 27% of the popular vote and finishing second behind Democrat Woodrow Wilson, was one of the best by a third-party candidate in U.S. history. However, it split the Republican vote, ultimately allowing Wilson to win the presidency, a testament to the Bull Moose Party's significant impact on U.S. history.
Decline and Dissolution
- Post-1912: After the 1912 election, the Bull Moose Party quickly lost momentum. Many of its supporters, who were originally Republicans, started to drift back to the Republican Party. The party needed the unifying figure of Roosevelt to maintain its relevance, who was the central force behind its creation.
1916 Election: In 1916, the Bull Moose Party attempted to mount another presidential campaign. However, Roosevelt declined to run and instead endorsed the Republican candidate, Charles Evans Hughes. Without Roosevelt's leadership, the party failed to gain significant support and effectively dissolved.
- Legacy: By the end of 1916, the Bull Moose Party had largely ceased to exist as an organised political force. However, its legacy lived on in the progressive policies it championed, many of which would later be adopted by the Democratic Party during the New Deal era under Franklin D. Roosevelt.
The Future President and Vice President of the U.S. Maybe.
The most lopsided outcome in a U.S. presidential election occurred in 1936, when incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt won re-election against Republican candidate Alf Landon.
Electoral Vote: Franklin D. Roosevelt won 523 electoral votes, while Alf Landon won only 8. This gave Roosevelt 98.49% of the electoral vote, the highest percentage ever won by a candidate.
- Popular Vote: Roosevelt's victory in the popular vote was nothing short of a landslide, with him securing a staggering 60.8% compared to Landon's 36.5%. This overwhelming margin of victory is a testament to the public's endorsement of Roosevelt's New Deal policies.
- States Won: Roosevelt carried 46 48 states, losing only Maine and Vermont.
This overwhelming victory strongly endorsed Roosevelt's New Deal policies during the Great Depression, and it remains the most lopsided presidential election in U.S. history regarding electoral vote percentage.
Fans Flock to Flossi
Harry S. Truman's victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election is one of the most famous upsets in American political history. Several factors contributed to Truman's surprising win, despite widespread expectations that Dewey, the Republican candidate, would easily defeat the incumbent president. Here's how Truman managed to secure victory:
Truman's Whistle-Stop Campaign
Truman embarked on a relentless and energetic whistle-stop tour across the country, travelling by train and speaking to large crowds in towns and cities. He delivered over 300 speeches, often several daily, covering nearly 22,000 miles.
Truman directly appealed to everyday Americans, positioning himself as a champion of the ordinary people against a "do-nothing" Republican-controlled Congress. His plain-spoken, folksy style resonated with voters, particularly in rural areas and small towns.
Truman successfully ran against the 80th Congress, which Republicans controlled. He labelled it the "Do-N and blamed it for failing to address key issues like housing, healthcare, and labour rights.
This strategy helped shift the focus away from Truman's vulnerabilities (such as economic challenges and unpopularity within his own party) and onto the Republican Party, making Dewey and the Republicans appear complacent and out of touch.
Dewey's campaign was famously cautious and overconfident. He believed he was so far ahead that he could afford to run a non-controversial, vague campaign, avoiding strong positions on significant issues. This lack of specificity made Dewey seem detached and uninspiring to many voters.
- Polls and Media Predictions:
Many public opinion polls and newspapers, including the famous incorrect headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" in the Chicago Daily Tribune, assumed Dewey's victory was inevitable. This may have led some of Dewey's potential supporters to stay home, believing the election was already decided.
Truman secured strong support from labour unions, African Americans, and other traditional Democratic constituencies. His support for civil rights, including the desegregation of the military and his stance on civil rights legislation, helped him secure the African American vote in key Northern states.
Truman's policies and portrayal of Dewey as an ally of big business helped him maintain support among farmers and worker. These groupst might have been expected to drift toward the Republicans.
- Splitting the Opposition: The presence of third-party candidates, such as Strom Thurmond of the States' Rights Democratic Party (Dixiecrats) and Henry Wallace of the Progressive Party, split the opposition vote. Thurmond took away Southern votes from the Democrats, but not enough to cost Truman the election, while Wallace siphoned off some liberal votes that might otherwise have gone to Truman.
- Truman's Persistence:
Despite the overwhelming belief that he would lose, Truman never gave up. His determination and relentless campaigning helped build momentum that many political observers should have noticed or taken seriously.
- Last-Minute Surge:
Truman's vigorous final campaign push, coupled with growing dissatisfaction with Dewey's lacklustre campaign, led to a late surge in support that confounded the polls and pundits.
Outcome:
On election night, November 2, 1948, Truman won with 49.6% of the popular vote and 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 45.1% and 189 electoral votes.
Flossi & Buck in the Spotlight
The longest political convention in U.S. history was the 1924 Democratic National Convention, which is often referred to as the "Klanbake" due to the influence of the Ku Klux Klan on the proceedings.
The convention lasted for an unprecedented 16 days, from June 24 to July 9, 1924.
It was held at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
The convention required a record 103 ballots to finally select a presidential nominee, making it the longest and one of the most contentious conventions in U.S. history.
The 1924 Democratic Convention was marked by deep divisions within the party, particularly between the urban, progressive wing (which supported candidates like Al Smith) and the rural, conservative wing (which supported William Gibbs McAdoo). Issues like Prohibition, immigration, and the influence of the Ku Klux Klan further exacerbated the divide.
The Ku Klux Klan, which was at the height of its power during this period, played a significant role in the convention. Its influence, particularly in the debates over whether to condemn the organization by name in the party platform, was a major factor ins length and contentiousness.
After 103 ballots, the convention finally nominated John W. Davis, a compromise candidate who was a former Congressman and U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom. Davis was seen as a conservative choice who could unite the party but ultimately lost the general election to Republican incumbent Calvin Coolidge.
Flossi: I Accept.
The first political convention held in Chicago was the Republican National Convention of 1860. This convention was significant for several reasons:
- Date: The convention lasted from May 16 to May 18, 1860.
- Location: It was held in a temporary structure known as the "Wigwam," built specifically for the convention. The Wigwam was located at the corner of Lake Street and Wacker Drive in Chicago.
- Significance: This convention is most famous for nominating Abraham Lincoln as the Republican candidate for President of the United States. Lincoln, a relatively lesser-known figure compared to other candidates like William Seward, emerged as a compromise candidate who could unify the party.
- Nomination: Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the third ballot, defeating other prominent contenders like William H. Seward of New York.
- Election: Lincoln went on to win the 1860 presidential election, leading to his presidency during the Civil War and his eventual role in ending slavery in the United States.
This convention was a pivotal moment in American history, marking the rise of Chicago as a significant political hub and setting the stage for Lincoln's leadership during one of the nation's most critical periods.