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Harry S. Truman's victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election is one of the most famous upsets in American political history. Several factors contributed to Truman's surprising win, despite widespread expectations that Dewey, the Republican candidate, would easily defeat the incumbent president. Here's how Truman managed to secure victory:
Truman's Whistle-Stop Campaign
Truman embarked on a relentless and energetic whistle-stop tour across the country, travelling by train and speaking to large crowds in towns and cities. He delivered over 300 speeches, often several daily, covering nearly 22,000 miles.
Truman directly appealed to everyday Americans, positioning himself as a champion of the ordinary people against a "do-nothing" Republican-controlled Congress. His plain-spoken, folksy style resonated with voters, particularly in rural areas and small towns.
Truman successfully ran against the 80th Congress, which Republicans controlled. He labelled it the "Do-N and blamed it for failing to address key issues like housing, healthcare, and labour rights.
This strategy helped shift the focus away from Truman's vulnerabilities (such as economic challenges and unpopularity within his own party) and onto the Republican Party, making Dewey and the Republicans appear complacent and out of touch.
Dewey's campaign was famously cautious and overconfident. He believed he was so far ahead that he could afford to run a non-controversial, vague campaign, avoiding strong positions on significant issues. This lack of specificity made Dewey seem detached and uninspiring to many voters.
- Polls and Media Predictions:
Many public opinion polls and newspapers, including The Chicago Daily Tribune's famous incorrect headline "Dewey Defeats, assume”, assumed Dewey's victory was inevitable. This may have led some of Dewey's potential supporters to stay home, believing the election was already decided.
Truman secured strong support from labour unions, African Americans, and other traditional Democratic constituencies. His support for civil rights, including the desegregation of the military and his stance on civil rights legislation, helped him secure the African American vote in key Northern states.
Truman's policies and portrayal of Dewey as an ally of big business helped him maintain support among farmers and workers.
- Splitting the Opposition: The presence of third-party candidates, such as Strom Thurmond of the States' Rights Democratic Party (Dixiecrats) and Henry Wallace of the Progressive Party, split the opposition vote. Thurmond took away Southern votes from the Democrats, but not enough to cost Truman the election, while Wallace siphoned off some liberal votes that might otherwise have gone to Truman.
- Truman's Persistence:
Despite the overwhelming belief that he would lose, Truman never gave up. His determination and relentless campaigning helped build momentum that many political observers should have noticed or taken seriously.
- Last-Minute Surge:
Truman's vigorous final campaign push and growing dissatisfaction with Dewey's lacklustre campaign led to a late surge in support that confounded the polls and pundits.
Outcome:
On election night, November 2, 1948, Truman won with 49.6% of the popular vote and 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 45.1% and 189 electoral votes.
