If You Can’t Beat’em, Buy’em
Estimating the combined market value of U.S. AR-15 rifle manufacturers can be challenging due to the diversity of the companies involved. Many of them are privately held and do not publicly disclose detailed financial information. However, we can get a rough estimate based on publicly available data, market reports, and industry analysis.
Public vs. Private Companies: Some AR-15 manufacturers are publicly traded (e.g., Sturm, Ruger & Co., Smith & Wesson), while others are privately held (e.g., Daniel Defense, Aero Precision). The market value of public companies can be more easily estimated through their market capitalisation, while private companies would require estimates based on revenue, growth potential, and industry comparisons.
Firearms Industry as a Whole:
The U.S. firearms industry is significant, with total revenues in the tens of billions annually. The AR-15 is one of the most popular rifle platforms in the U.S., and many of the manufacturers listed are major players in the broader firearms market.
Market Value Estimates:
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWBI): The company's market capitalisation as of 2024 is estimated to be around $0.6 - $1 billion.
Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc. (NYSE: RGR): The company's market capitalisation 2024 is estimated to be around $1.2 - $1.6 billion.
Colt's Manufacturing Company: Acquired by CZG - Česká zbrojovka Group in 2021. CZG's total market cap is around $2 - $2.5 billion, with Colt representing a significant portion of their value.
Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO): This company includes brands like Bushmaster. Its market capitalisation is around $1 - $1.5 billion.
For privately held companies like Daniel Defense, Aero Precision, and others, we can estimate their value based on revenue multiples:
- Daniel Defense: Estimated annual revenue might be $200-$300 million, potentially valuing the company at $600 million to $1 billion, depending on growth projections and profitability.
- Aero Precision: Another large player with a similar potential valuation based on revenue.
- Palmetto State Armory could also be valued at hundreds of millions.
Combined Market Value Estimate:
Considering both public and private companies, the combined market value of U.S. AR-15 manufacturers can be estimated in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion. This range considers the major players, market conditions, and the portion of their business explicitly tied to AR-15 production within the broader firearms market.
So you mean that for $10 billion, someone could buy all the legal producers and shut the production line for these models. Hmm, where would we find ten billionaires?
