Flossi Calling Supporters with 6 Days to Election
Presidential campaigns frequently face last-minute issues that can disrupt their momentum, shift public perception, or even alter the election's outcome. Here are some notable last-minute problems that have affected campaigns:
1. October Surprises
- 1972 – Nixon vs. McGovern: Just before the election, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger announced that “peace is at hand” in the Vietnam War, boosting Nixon’s re-election chances. Nixon won by a landslide, though the peace talks ultimately stalled shortly after the election.
- 2016 – Clinton vs. Trump: FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails just days before the election. This led to a renewed focus on Clinton’s trustworthiness and may have influenced undecided voters. Trump won a narrow victory in crucial swing states.
2. Health Issues
- 1892 – Cleveland vs. Harrison: Incumbent President Benjamin Harrison's wife, Caroline, was seriously ill and passed away just before the election. Harrison reduced his campaign activities to focus on family matters, which may have impacted his ability to campaign effectively. He lost the election to Grover Cleveland.
- 1912 – Roosevelt vs. Wilson vs. Taft: Theodore Roosevelt, running as a third-party candidate, was shot in an assassination attempt during a campaign event. Roosevelt continued campaigning after a short recovery, using the incident to emphasise his toughness, though he ultimately lost.
3. Economic Crises
- 2008 – Obama vs. McCain: The U.S. faced a severe financial crisis just weeks before the election, leading to stock market crashes and a recession. John McCain suspended his campaign to return to Washington and address the situation, while Barack Obama took a calm, steady approach. The crisis highlighted McCain’s unpredictability, contributing to Obama’s eventual victory.
- 1929 – Hoover’s Stock Market Concerns: While not directly during a campaign, the stock market crash in October 1929, just after Hoover's election, contributed to negative public perception of his administration. This perception influenced the 1932 campaign, which Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt amid the Great Depression.
4. Scandals
- 1980 – Reagan vs. Carter: In the final days of the campaign, reports surfaced that the Carter administration had failed to secure the release of American hostages in Iran. Reagan’s campaign used this effectively, suggesting Carter's weakness in foreign policy, and Reagan won in a landslide.
- 1992 – Clinton vs. Bush: Just days before the election, news broke of George H.W. Bush’s potential involvement in the Iran-Contra Affair during his vice presidency under Reagan. Though Bush denied any wrongdoing, the scandal reinforced the perception of him as part of a corrupt establishment.
5. Natural Disasters
- 2012 – Obama vs. Romney: In the final week before the election, Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast, devastating New Jersey and New York. President Obama showed leadership in crisis management, while Mitt Romney was sidelined from actively campaigning. The disaster highlighted Obama’s handling of emergencies and may have helped solidify his re-election.
6. Endorsements and Defections
- 1976 – Ford vs. Carter: Just before the election, Ronald Reagan, who had narrowly lost the Republican nomination to incumbent Gerald Ford, offered a tepid endorsement, which may have discouraged conservative voters. Ford ultimately lost to Jimmy Carter in a close election.
- 2000 – Bush vs. Gore: In the final days, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who had strong support among liberals, refused to endorse Al Gore, likely siphoning away votes that could have helped Gore in key states like Florida. The race came down to a few hundred votes in Florida, leading to Bush’s victory after a contentious Supreme Court ruling.
7. Last-Minute Polls and Media Influence
- 1948 – Truman vs. Dewey: Polls leading up to the election consistently showed Thomas Dewey as the favorite to win. This led many newspapers and media outlets to predict a Dewey victory, perhaps causing voter complacency among Dewey supporters. Truman ultimately pulled off a surprise victory in one of the greatest election upsets in U.S. history.
- 1988 – Bush vs. Dukakis: Just before the election, an infamous ad campaign against Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis highlighted his stance on criminal justice, specifically the “Willie Horton” ad. The ad cast doubt on Dukakis’s ability to handle crime, contributing to George H.W. Bush’s victory.